White people are losing ground. Our numbers are dwindling in every traditionally Caucasian country. We are not having enough children to reproduce ourselves. Meanwhile, Black, Muslim and Hispanic populations are burgeoning in their traditional homelands – and in ours. Is it really that bleak? It may not be.
First of all, we are victims of our own success and our own consciences. It is white people who decided that we are overprivileged and that we are obliged to let other peoples have their place in the sun. It is fairer to say that we are giving rather than losing ground.
Most significantly, we have concluded that the earth is overpopulated, that its resources are fast running out. In the end, we have concluded that we are unworthy of reproducing ourselves. We long ago gave up the religious convictions that would have us believe that having children was a good thing. White voters established governmental systems that make having children unattractive. We promised ourselves, via The State, that our fellow citizens would take responsibility for our medical and retirement needs. Our politicians believe, and have convinced us, that asking the ethnicity of the taxpayers is an irrelevant and unbecoming question. One taxpayer is as good as another, and open immigration will supply the numbers.
Extrapolating population trends in the United States does not look promising for white people. Our birth rates have been declining for decades. Having kids is too expensive, fewer people feel obliged to do it for family or religious reasons, and more and more people are opting for gay in swinger lifestyles that don’t include children.
The statistics are muddled, seemingly on purpose. The Census Bureau conflates European whites with Hispanics. The published statistics that show that the white population is more or less reproducing itself are wrong. The supposed whites of Latin American origin are more than reproducing themselves, but we descendents of pioneer stock are not.
Making a ludicrously large number of assumptions, the biggest of which is that current trends will perpetuate themselves over the next 25 years, one can make the projections shown in the diagram. The number of non-Hispanic white babies born (represented at the bottom of the graph as the size of the age cohort aged 0-4) will continue to decline. The baby boomer generation will continue to move, like a pig through a python, until the oldest of them turn 90 at the end of the projection, at which time they will still be the largest age cohort of white people. Isn’t that a frightening thought! The overall number of non-Hispanic whites will drop from 192 to 183 million.
More and more women do not want the burden of children, and more and more men seem to be unwilling to commit to a family. The arithmetic behind the diagram optimistically predicts that white women will produce babies at today’s rate. However, their fertility has been declining for decades and there is nothing to suggest that it will reverse itself. Boldly projecting forward using present fertility, births to non-Hispanic white women will drop from 10.3 million to 8.2 million over the 25 years.
The largest caveat in making such a projection is that the years since World War II have been remarkably stable. The world has not seen any large wars, epidemics, or other massive disruptions. It has been a time of relative peace and prosperity. The era witnessed a flowering of technology and productivity which resulted in unprecedented prosperity. Liberal democratic governments throughout the world instituted safety nets to protect their citizens from unemployment, health problems, and poverty in old age. All this has worked for the 70 years since the end of World War II. However, only the blind can fail to observe that time is running out on the welfare state. There are too many people drawing its benefits, and too few people paying taxes. As the diagram show, we white people, the backbone of the tax paying class, are getting older: too few are joining the labor force, and too many are leaving it. Governments throughout the developed world are going bankrupt at a rate that is both fast and accelerating.
But that’s not all! People joining the labor force are less able to compete, with older members and with foreigners. They are born dumber., at a time when the skew of jobs available increasingly favors the more intelligent. There will be more and more freeloaders, as fewer and fewer are capable of doing mankind’s work. Massive resentments are predictable – nobody likes to think of themselves as useless. While we can only speculate what will happen, we can be fairly sure that something will. That which cannot go on forever – will not. To throw Francis Fukayama’s question back at him, what happens after the end of history?
The white race continues to have huge advantages. The land we control is more extensive, better watered and more fertile than that of any other race. We have far and away the best weaponry to defend ourselves against outside aggressors. Should they choose to use them domestically, the white majorities remain in a position to suppress any uprising by other races within their borders. The institutions that almost all societies have now adopted were products of the Enlightenment. We invented them, and in many cases do a better job of administering educational institutions, police departments, military organizations and the like.
When one reflects on the resources of the other races, and what may happen to them over the next few decades, the prospects for the white race do not seem that dire. If that is so, the key question becomes one for us as individuals. How do we prepare for changes to come? But first, here is an extremely broad-brush handicapping of the prospects of other races.
The black races are reproducing themselves handily. Hillary Clinton observed that it takes a village to raise a child. The village is especially useful when you don’t know or care who the father is. The Blacks have been good at having children, but have not been socializing them to be productive workers in a modern economy. They do not have, and have shown no ability to acquire either the intellect or the temperament to, for instance, run South Africa or Zimbabwe after they took them over. There is not enough land to support them. Africa’s continued existence, and that of the black race in other countries, appears to depend on the goodwill of the white man.
Native Americans face the worst fertility problem than white people. They are having fewer children, and those children are ill-equipped either by temperament or intellect to compete in the white man’s world. Four centuries after Dartmouth and Harvard College wrote Indian education into their founding documents, the Indians remain defiantly outside of the mainstream culture. They have the good grace to be committing racial suicide by not reproducing.
The North Asian peoples – Chinese, Japanese and Koreans –have the same kind of fertility problems as we white people. The Western concept of individualism is hurting them even more than those of us who invented it. Living cheek by jowl, they cannot afford to indulge a Western appetite for consumer goods such as cars and houses. Nevertheless they want them, and they are destroying their habitat in the quest. They have far less agricultural land, water, and mineral wealth than we white people. Their air pollution even affects Californians.
Even worse, in moving to the cities Asians have adopted the Western notion of “true love.” They are abandoning traditional arranged marriages only to discover that they really are not given to romantic love. Their fertility is plummeting. As among us in the West, it is the smartest who are having the fewest children. North Asians are the only major racial group with average intelligence rivaling (exceeding, actually) that of white people. Though they are uniquely positioned for the triumphal age of technology, they are not having children they would need in order to exploit this advantage.
South Asia is the burned-out cradle of civilization. The land is overworked, people undernourished and well below white and North Asian averages of intelligence and enterprise. The smartest among them –and among that many people, there are many highly intelligent ones – have been immigrating to Europe and the United States as quickly as they can. South Asian fertility appears to be affected by technology in much the same ways as white and North Asian cultures. Arranged marriage is on the wane, and the men and women are discovering that they really don’t like each other.
The last major race to consider are Latin Americans. They are in actuality a blend of many races, Native American, white and African with an admixture Chinese and Japanese. Whether or not they are a race, they can be considered as an evolutionary group. Their averages of intelligence and industry reflect the admixture. America is witness to their capabilities. They do not produce scholars, business executives and other leaders in anywhere close to their proprtions in society. Conversely, the business elite of Latin American countries remain the descendants of Europeans, Japanese, Lebanese and other traditionally successful cultures.
The water and agricultural resources Latinos control, a somewhat distant second to those of the white civilizations, are unequally distributed. The Southern Cone countries have a lot, most others do not have much.
When all is said and done, the North Asians appear to be the only racial group remotely well positioned to supplant white people in an evolutionary sense, and they suffer from worse resource and reproductivity problems than we do. When today’s world order collapses, it appears the wreckage fall to us whites simply because no other group is positioned to take it. How will our less numerous, less intelligent successors deal with it? What about you and me?
The white race is currently going through a population bottleneck. Many have been convinced that, given the world’s scarce resources, having children is almost criminal. Others have concluded they can’t afford them. It may get worse: many white children are being born to people without the wit to find work even today. Technological progress does not bode well for them; it may be that the best existence they could hope for is being doped up on Aldous Huxley’s soma. Which it appears we already have, in the form of legalized dope and video games.
Given that all others appear destined to fall by the wayside, there may well be a promising future for the progeny of those of us who are smart enough to find meaningful work in this generation and committed enough to find a partner and create a stable home for raising the next. It is a matter of faith. Do we have it? Do we cherish our inheritance enough to pass it along? That question, above all, may decide the future of the race.