Response to an ad hominem slur prompted by my note on Yanukovych’s capitulation

Most of you on Facebook received my last post as it was intended: merely my opinion. You may not agree with everything I say, but that is of course your right. You have your own observations in your own fundamental beliefs.

One fellow I know from Kiev, however, chose to attack me personally:

“Graham, you are at heart a racist and a homophobe and you can’t seem to write anything without those true colors revealing themselves. You are a bigot masquerading as a scholar. I have been wanting to type those words, and your “analysis” today was my necessary impetus for doing so. I’m glad that you are happy where you are, but I am also glad that you are no longer in the U.S. or the West.”

I single out this particular FB friend, whom I expect to unfriend me shortly, because this typifies the response that a blogger such as myself gets from a liberal. It was a long article, with a lot of substantive points that might be debated. He might have chosen particular points to rebut, saying that he did not believe they were true. No, he didn’t. And I will generalize that no – they don’t. People are quite content smear me with whatever labels they wish without going to the arguments.

Is this laziness on the part of left? I think it is evidence that they succeed all too well in shutting people up by labeling them, libeling them, and excluding them from the circles of supposedly polite company. What is what he is doing is exercising a generally successful strategy. If I were in the United States and I had something to lose like a job, calling me these things would pose a real threat. When I was a grad student at the University of Maryland 10 years ago I was threatened with a charge of sexual harassment on the basis of an email observation that another women dressed in a way calculated to maximize her jiggle.  We had had shared such banter before – but this time she was under deadline pressure to finish editing my manuscript, and appears to have chosen this device to push me off.  The advantage I had was that being retired I didn’t need an academic career in the first place. I could afford to be braver than most.

Let me go to the charge of being a homophobe. A homophobe would be somebody who fears homosexuals. Fear would certainly not be an applicable word. I have known homosexuals all my life. Indeed, in my early years my parents ran a sort of a rooming house, housing being short in the Berkeley area during the war, and some of the roomers were gay. Mother knew it, it didn’t bother her, some became friends of the family and they sometimes babysat me. When I was old enough to understand such things, my mother explained it to me.

In business life likewise I came across quite a few homosexuals. I didn’t judge them by what they do with their private parts, I judged them by how well they did business. I was the president of the Washington Independent Computer Consultants Association about 1983. Maurice, the fellow that I sponsored to succeed me, was a black gay. He was a capable consultant. Sadly, he died of AIDS few years later.  It was a marvelous funeral attended by all.  Later, when I had my own company, I employed a handful of gay men.  Given that I was long married and my orientation was clear, we could talk about relationships without any question of ulterior motives.

Gays frequently hit upon me when I was hitchhiking as a student and later in Vietnam. The male nurses seemed almost all gay, and if you went to the soldier’s clubs where they hung out, they would try to get something going. I didn’t fear them, I didn’t resent them.   I used Nancy Reagan’s famous words and just said no. I wasn’t interested. People like to pretend that it was a dark age in which gays were universally shunned and despised.  In my experience that was not the case.  Whatever, I do not fear homosexuals.

The fear that I do have is for the future of our society. In order for the society into which I was born to perpetuate itself, it needs to have children. It needs parents who will nurture those children and raise them to be more or less like themselves. This is how societies have always perpetuated themselves, and when they have stopped doing so they died.

My concern is that the gay agenda, as well as the swinger agenda, both of which put all the emphasis on sexual fulfillment and none on the use of sex to perpetuate society, is detrimental to the long-term interests of the society. For that reason I oppose the gay agenda, as well as the swinger agenda. I am critical in my reviews of Roosh V’s books on seducing women throughout the world.   Conversely, I give five stars to “The Intelligence Paradox” which has favorable comments on average gay intelligence.  I do try to be consistent and objective.

What I advocate in the article that I wrote recently is that Ukraine avoid gender confusion, avoid glorifying homosexuality. I’m not a great fan of Vladimir Putin in general, but in this one in this case I am absolutely with him. I agree with him that society should tolerate homosexuals. I also agree with him that there is nothing to be gained, and a lot to be lost by glorifying and promoting the homosexual lifestyle. If there is any choice in the matter people should not be led to choose a lifestyle that is not in the interests of society. The gays who have come on to me certainly acted as if I could choose to be gay, and I believe the evidence of my eyes much more than the gay lobby’s self-serving propaganda.  Moreover, if there is no choice in the matter, why in hell do they need to propagandize us so relentlessly? This is the case in which everybody should just shut up.

Now, Jerry, if you want an argument, please pick one of the above points and compose a scholarly statement as to why you think I am wrong.  Don’t just smear me as a homophobe, cast me a superior smirk and walk away from the issue.  Show some intellectual rigor.

People likewise call me a racist. Let me spell it out. The different races differ in terms of average ability. Nonetheless, there are geniuses and idiots of all races, my own included.

You can look on Wikipedia and learn that the average intelligence of the races has been known for almost a century. People will quibble over a couple of points of IQ here or there, but the ranking of the races has remained unchanged at least since I was a child. In grammar school we knew that the Oriental kids tested as being smarter than us white kids. It was a fact that accepted without comment and without concern.

So here are the average IQs that I work with. Please recognize that people put these averages a point or to a new direction. Ashkenazi Jews: 115. North Asians living in the United States: 105. White Americans such as myself: 100. And below that, the averages are in the low 90s for some and 85 for the lowest group. I’m being coy – you know very well which ones I’m talking about.

I repeat that this does not mean that there are not geniuses from every group. I have great admiration for Thomas Sowell and Clarence Thomas, both of whom I think are first-rate intellects. But the average of their race is below mine. This is a fact that can be easily observed, has been endlessly measured, and about which there is no scientific debate.  Conversely, the average intelligence of Jews is above that of us whites, but my intelligence is above that of most Jews. It gives me a perverse pleasure when some smug Jew takes me for a “goyische kopf” and stubs his toe against this fact.

It delights me to encounter in the biographies of Clarence Thomas, Paul Robeson and W. E. B. DuBois, accounts of the astonishment their white classmates experienced in discovering that these men were not just quick, but quite obviously quite a bit smarter.  Also better at athletics, singing and acting.  I would have loved to be there to witness it.   Such talent is not the kind of thing you can bet on encountering frequently, but you will be sadly mistaken if you rule it out.  That is precisely what statistics will tell you.

Calling me a racist for observing these facts is futile. Calling me a racist has no bearing on the facts. I will treat each individual as an individual, on the basis of whatever talent that they demonstrate. I certainly try not to be prejudiced except in the case where I have no other criterion upon which to judge than a person’s color. If you asked if I would cross the street to avoid confronting a group of three oncoming young black men in hoodies, the answer is yes. If that makes me a racist, then it’s common sense to be racist.

Jerry, if you can cite any science which contradicts what I have written above, I look forward to hearing about it.  If you insist on calling me a racist simply because I accept the broad consensus of four generations of psychometricians, which concurs very well with my own lifetime of experience, I am afraid I can only conclude that you are hopeless.  No facts can penetrate your liberal armor, and we really have nothing to talk about.

Looping back to Ukraine, the great thing about the society is that we don’t have to worry about these issues. Here it is all just Ukrainians. Most of the Jews left for Argentina and the United States and Canada a hundred years ago. There are a few tens of thousands left. There are a handful of blacks, and a handful of Muslims. There are not enough Chinese even to support a good restaurant.  These minorities all seem to get along just fine. What I advocate is that Ukraine recognize how good things are and simply preserve the status quo.  Every nation has a sovereign right to limit immigration.  That is what I advocate.

Thoughts of a foreign minority immigrant to Ukraine

 

You readers are kind not to call me for hypocrisy. I go on at length about the dangers posed by foreigners and immigrants and minorities here in Ukraine and in the West. I am of course a foreigner, an immigrant, and a minority myself.

That status has provided me with some interesting insights which I would like to share. First of all, you may ask, how do I fit these categories? I am an older straight white conservative American male. That’s enough adjectives for this purpose. The contexts in which I have been situated during my life are where I lived: Berkeley, Washington DC and Bethesda Maryland, Vietnam, Germany ,Buenos Aires, and now Kiev; institutions of higher education: Reed College in Portland, Oregon, Berkeley and The University of Maryland. Apply any combination of the adjectives which describe me to these settings, and I have been a minority in all cases.

There are several adjectives which one often ascribes to minorities. Despised, shunned and envied would be three. Yes, I have certainly been all of those things. The worst examples were in the more liberal contexts that I just named in the United States: firstly, Reed College, Washington DC and Bethesda, and the University of Maryland. They really don’t like conservative straight white men, especially those who argue back.  Most on the left would rather hammer an opponent with slogans and slurs rather than argue the merits of any given issue.

That’s enough on the experience of being a minority within my own country.  In any foreign country there is some level of resentment of Americans. In Vietnam, and again now in Kiev, I am somewhat resented because I am fairly well-to-do and have an attractive wife. I experienced some of the same kind of resentment at a lower level in Germany and even in the United States. Envy is a part of the human condition.

Americans as a group are resented for more substantive reasons. In Germany and in Japan they were resented because they posed a real threat to the communities. American soldiers tended to commit crimes at a level distressing to the orderly Japanese and Germans.  Moreover, both nations recognized the black American soldiers were quite a bit more prone to commit crime than white ones. The black soldiers complained that they were discriminated against by shopkeepers taxi drivers and prostitutes alike. This was entirely true. It was a natural reaction their experience with the blacks.

Such a reaction did not originate with American blacks. The French forces which preceded us in Vietnam were also integrated. They left evidence in the form of mixed race children. And the American black soldiers in Vietnam were greeted from the beginning with the same exaggerated level of suspicion in Vietnam as they met in Japan and Germany. The Vietnamese experience with Blacks had paralleled that of other nations. Whereas some Vietnamese offered the opinion that mixed raced children of white Americans were strengthening their racial stock, a line which they probably learned from the French, no Vietnamese would have made that claim about mixed raced children with black soldiers.

American retirees in Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama and elsewhere they form their own communities. A great many never learn to speak Spanish.  They are insular, though generally not unkindly disposed to the locals. At any rate, their wealth and separation leads to a certain level of resentment among the local populations who are not as well situated.

My point, using the example of us Americans ourselves overseas, is that any hopes that we will integrate fully with the local peoples generally remain unrealized. Most Americans don’t integrate, as most other immigrants everywhere in the world don’t fully integrate.

The reasons they fail to assimilate are fairly consistent. Two strong reasons are a lack of aptitude to learn the local language, and to acquire the same level of education as the locals. There’s also the matter of cultural differences in acceptable behavior, and tolerable levels of crime.  I will conclude below that no country has an obligation under anybody’s moral scheme to open its doors to all comers. Every country has a right to its own sovereign integrity, and Ukraine should exercise it.  I advocate that Ukraine maintain its ethnic homogeneity, that it defend itself against immigrant minorities. How do I square that with being an immigrant minority myself?

Ukraine made it difficult for me to immigrate. I had to marry a local, and wait for years. There was supposedly a mechanism whereby I could have gained immigrant status by investing $100,000 , but I no lawyer could never figure out how to do it. I am glad. If it was difficult for me, it will difficult for everybody, as I believe that it should be.

Nonetheless, there are some minorities here:  the permanent long-standing ethnic minorities such as one finds in any European country. Ours include Hungarians, Tartars, Armenians, Gypsies and Jews, among others. All are fairly well tolerated.

None of the minorities are numerous enough that there are large enclaves in which they speak only their own language. Ukrainian and Russian are the two languages that get you around in Ukraine, and everybody speaks them. The Gypsies in my neighborhood could not survive without some combination of the two. Likewise the Tartars, of whom there are perhaps a half million in Crimea, all speak Russian to get by.

Therefore, by some combination of native intellect, curiosity, and pure need, everybody speaks one of the national languages. There are no unassimilated pockets of immigrants. There may be grandmothers and grandfathers who came with their families and don’t learn to speak the language, but anybody in childhood or of working age pretty much learns it.

I will make one exception to this general rule: English speaking people. God has favored us in many ways. One of them is that people throughout the world want to speak English, and they spare us the obligation of learning to speak their languages. Of the Americans and the Englishman that I know here in Ukraine, only a distinct minority speak the local languages. Almost all of those who do learned them through the Peace Corps or early in their student days. With the exception of myself, who started studying Russian as a retiree and I still hasn’t mastered it.  So the Lord looks out for small children and wayward Americans, but otherwise one has to have the local language to get by here.

I will add another thought on the minorities. Most of the minorities here are not terribly readily identifiable by their faces. The Central Asians who sell fruits in the bazaars are distinct –in their dress, their occupation, and to the locals, distinct in their accents. They do however speak fairly good Ukrainian/Russian and their faces are not that different. This is unlike the United States, in which Hispanics and especially blacks are very distinguishable by both speech and appearance.

While there are a few blacks here, there are not enough that they can form ethnic enclaves. There is a collection of 20 or so who run a used clothes bazaar in the Shuluyavska area of Kiev. One understands that the police keep a pretty close eye on them. They speak African dialects among themselves but pretty good Ukrainian to their customers. And they at all aggressive, as blacks can be elsewhere. They are deferential to whites, as well they should be, because if they were not they would suffer for it.

There is also a smattering of mulattos in the population. The Soviet Union as a gesture of magnanimity extended university education student black Africans. Obviously, the best and the brightest came. Patrice Lumumba’s Congo was well represented. And while they were here, they did as visiting firemen always do, got acquainted with the locals. The result was a smattering of mixed children who grew up as Ukrainians. They are visibly different, but they were socialized in an entirely Ukrainian society, and whatever temperamental characteristics they might have inherited from their fathers are suppressed. They act like good Slavic people.  You see them with their fair skinned Slavic friends as if there were no difference whatsoever to be remarked. And they behave like their Slavic friends.

One can observe the same thing in certain sectors of American society. One of my grown daughters had a half black friend, who came on sleepovers fairly often. Mother would characterize father with the stereotypical adjectives about blacks – fun-loving, good-looking, and not very reliable. The daughter inherited from temperamental characteristics mostly from mother, but quite a bit of charm and good looks from father. She became a successful woman, if not an intellectual star.

I served on the school boards of two private schools in the Washington DC area, and substitute taught in several others. The admissions processes in the schools was a more highly guarded secret than Obama’s SAT scores. We had a certain number of black students. And we awarded a certain amount of scholarship money. Though I was the treasurer of to the schools, I was certainly never told to whom the scholarship money was going. It was obvious, but they did not want me to ask, and I did not want to push the matter. Nor did I ask the academic qualifications of the scholarship recipients. As a substitute teacher I observed the blacks’ performance in class, and as a parent I observed the intellectual prowess of my children’s black schoolmates. It was not impressive. But it was incumbent on me to remain quiet and I did.

The percentage of minority students in the private schools never exceeded about 15 or 20%. In other words, there was never the opportunity for a black culture to form within the schools. One sometimes saw black culture in individual classes. The first year that I served as a classroom teacher I was given the hard case students, who included mostly scholarship kids, and even in this small group of about five kids confined to one class they managed to form a bad attitude club and generally reject the notion that they might do school work. I did the best I could with it, went along with it, but I’ll have to observe that the schools could not have allowed any substantial number of such students in ordinary classes without disrupting the entire institution. I was charged with them precisely to keep them out of the other classes where their attitudes and their inability to learn would’ve been a drag on everybody else’s achievement.

A community which observes diversity through having such as the above-mentioned Ukrainian mulattos, or the young woman I wrote about in the United States, or a Barack Obama in its midst seems to get along quite well. Diversity only becomes a problem when the minorities don’t act like the host majority:  they retain their own temperaments and cultures in defiance of their hosts.

If one or two Somali families were to live in my neighborhood, I’m quite sure that they would learn to speak Ukrainian and they would not practice female genital mutilation. If there were 100 families here, I expect the opposite would be the case. Therefore diversity seems to be something that appears to work, and even appears attractive when the numbers are small. There comes, however, a tipping point at which it appears no longer to be such a good idea. Societies which reach that tipping point find that they have a devilishly difficult time turning back. Many people will have become intellectually committed to the project of diversity, and refuse to see the problems.   And in any case, precedents, laws, and other practices will have been put in place which favor diversity. It is a self-reinforcing mechanism. Once you get a little diversity, the thing spirals out of control and you soon get a lot. My advice to the Ukrainians is, don’t get started. Don’t be seduced by the fact that the little bit that already exists does not look that bad.  Only look to the West and see where it inevitably leads.

Ukraine appears finally to have achieved some real, if shaky, independence twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union.  They have to be strong indefending themselves against the Soviet Union’s successor state, Putin’s Russia, and against Europe’s seductions.  Ukraine needs to reflect on the fact that it was their solidarity as a people that enabled them to coalesce and to overthrow their dictator, and to observe the impending collapse of the west.  Ukraine is well off with the population it has.  They need to strongly defend the status quo.  No immigration!

A letter to friends the day after Yanukovych’s capitulation in Ukraine. My view from Kiev

Lots of people wrote this week to ask how I am.  I was gathering my thoughts in this piece, overtaken by events as the government seems to have collapsed just as I finished writing this piece.

The short answer is that we are doing, and were doing just fine.

My problem at the moment there is a two-year-old who is jealous that I’m talking to voice recorder, and is interrupting me. I have sent a number of you a map. Let me put it in words. We are across the river from the center of the city where all the fighting is going on. The river is about half a mile wide, and we are 3 miles away. As I think I’ve written before, we are in a real backwater, a rural enclave surrounded by the city. We are more than a mile from any big buildings in any direction. We’re cut off from vehiclar traffic on the west by the river, and on the north and the east by a railroad. This has been a problem in general, because we have to go three miles south in order to connect with civilization. In this instance that looks like a pretty good situation. Nobody is coming here to look for us.

Our major vulnerability is electricity. We use well water and a septic system. It all operates on the power grid. However,  if the electricity goes out other people will have a much worse than we do. Where people live in apartments, between 10 and 20 stories high, they absolutely depend on their elevators. If the electricity goes, there would be an awful lot of immobilized grandmothers, and great general outrage against the government that shut it off.  Also, we have a barbecue and a kerosene heater so which comes to worse we will survive.   We lost power for stretches of up to the day throughout the winter and got along okay.

The Metro did not work for four days. Nothing wrong with the Metro. The excuse is that they wanted to avert terrorist threats. The real reason was quite obvious. Protesters used the Metro to get around the city, and the administration wants to immobilized people. To that end they have also periodically blocked roads, shut down the gas stations, and yesterday they shut down the banks. I don’t know what that would do; make it harder for people to buy sandbags?  Except for the branches in the center of town, mine is open again today.  Yesterday I changed money at 8.92 hryvnya/dollar; it is a bit lower today.

It appears to me that the major effect was to bring the economy to a standstill. I have two housemates, and Yurii and Polina.  Yurii he wasn’t able to get to work yesterday. Paulina went, and she said is only about half the office was there, and they didn’t get much done. Everybody was glued to their streaming video on Internet.

You are concerned about me. Let me tell you about the guy I was concerned about. Michael Bedwell is a in is a 79-year-old Englishman who lives at the corner of Khruschevskovo and Khreschatic streets, right behind the Dniepro  hotel. That’s is right on European square, the absolute center of the fighting. He is across from from Ukraine house, the museum being used as a medical facility to treat injured demonstrators.

Michael had trouble getting in and out of his house. He says that he faces intense interrogation by the police every time he goes home. However, given that he is an older foreigner, they don’t take them to be much of a terrorist and they let him go. In any case, Michael has been living with in this apartment since he got back to town to weeks ago from a trip to Burma. I told him that he should get the hell out, come live with us. He said yes, in due time. He’s coming over today, ironically, after the threat is over.

Michael experienced the London blitz a few years back. He was in the Navy and is a hard guy to faze. That may explain some of my attitude as well. I lived in the cities of Danang in Saigon for four years during the Vietnam War. When I first flew in in 1968 I remember being somewhat apprehensive as I looked out of the windows of the 707 that I would be seeing antiaircraft rockets coming up to greet me. However, in the four years I was there nobody ever shot at me. There were a few explosions around me, but no gunfire that could have gotten me. I became kind of used to what one must do living in a war zone. And that’s how I feel right now.

One of the things to think about in this standoff is how limited the president’s options have been. His major force is the better equipped Berkut, the special police. These are his bully boys. They number only about 4000. They are trained riot police, and their major tactic is the Roman one called the turtle. They move forward in a phalanx with their heavy shields in front of them and break through the crowd. So they advance and retreat as a group. This avoids bloodshed, and it will clear an area when it works. However that doesn’t hold up fairly well against really determined line of defense, and he is not very good for occupying ground. There are not enough of them to really take over.

The other widely deployed force are called titushkis. These are ne’er-do-wells, young men who are recruited from the bars the fight clubs in the streets of the of the villages, which is the political stronghold of the president. They are paid about $30/day to cause trouble. They have been a fixture in this administration.  In this case they have been brought in by the busload.   There are supposedly three busloads in one hotel about 5 miles from here.

There was another interesting story about a busload that was waylaid in the town of Cherkassy, about a hundred miles south of Kiev. The residents of Chercassy saw that it was a busfull of young men headed toward Kiev and they simply immobilized the bus. They somehow stopped it, took the wheels off and left it right there with these young men in it.  In another story from yesterday, a bus full of young men was observed on the outskirts of Kiev.  Locals stopped the bus, forced the young men out, made them wade into a knee-deep pond barefoot, took the $30 plus whatever other money they had, gave them back $5 apiece and told them to get the hell out of town.  Which they did.

I may have mentioned that there are condemned houses in the path of the future metro a half mile from where we live.  Occupied by Gypsies, if at all.  As Oksana and I were out walking this morning a guy in a small SUV  stopped to tell us that titushki were going looking for places to stay, and the neighborhood was organizing to resist them.  He asked if there were any abandonned houses on our block; we said,no.

Housemate Yurii bicycled through the center yesterday to get his car.  The metro wasn’t working.  He says he saw more than 100 titushki on his way, less than a mile from the center.  They were carrying sticks, but mostly just goofing.  Taking cell-phone pictures of each other and so on.  He biked through them without incident.  He said there were people on the sidewalks.  It wasn’t like a gang war or anything.

Friend Mark says there were a lot of titushki in Poznaky where he lives.  There they broke store windows, burned cars and just raised hell.  His neighbors formed an ad-hoc association of more than 100 men to patrol the streets and keep them at bay.  They cornered one guy such that he had no option but to run across the ice-covered river.  He went in.  There was a firetruck right there, by pure chance, and they pulled him out and took him away.

I find these incidents very illustrative. People throughout the country are disgusted by what’s going on, and they will take measures to thwart this government. It also shows a proclivity to avoid violence. On hearing the instance of the immobilized bus, I pictured them setting fire to it and killing the thugs as a warning to others not to get involved.   They did not do that.  Nor did the young men spill out of the bus in a panic and and look for a fight.

I feel that restraint has characterized this entire confrontation.  Significantly, it ended the day after government forces started shooting Kalishnikovs indiscriminately into the crowd.  Several ranking officials deserted the president’s Party of Regions, and the government collapsed.  The wonder is not that 100 people were killed, but that it was so few.  There were many thousands of people on both sides. The government certainly had the resources to arm their people, and the civilians are not totally unarmed despite a European no guns policy.  Despite all, the use of firearms has been quite limited. So it is kind of a kabuki battle, or an old Chinese warlord battle going back and forth back and forth with a lot of symbolic movement, but not a vast amount of real violence.

Which brings me to another topic, that of the media. The media don’t have any very exciting wars going on at the moment. It’s true, if you want to look for bodies you have to go no further than any city in Africa and you’ll find quite a few. They are still cutting each other up butcher shop style in Congo and Rwanda and places like that. That’s not news. It’s news when Europeans are going at each other. So however restrained the violence here, it’s the best they’ve got, and the media played to the hilt.

Media attention puts pressure on the European and United States governments to do something. They really have nothing to do. I see both as spent forces, well overextended by their own budgetary problems, their involvement in the Middle East and elsewhere, and ineffective in any case. Moreover, as we learned from the intercepted telephone call with the lovely language that are that are American girls use these days, the United States government just doesn’t know what to do. The message that I took from this intercepted phone call was how impotent the United States is in the face of all this. We only know the leading players with party affiliations. We don’t know the people on the streets. There was no talk of how to get money to these leaders to these party leaders because that’s not really what they need. They need supporters they need cohesion. And that was what Nuland talked about – her perception of who needs to be in charge. Incidentally, I agree with her. The fact that she and I agreed means nothing, because the leaders themselves don’t listen to either of us.  Now that it appears the issue will be resolved in the Rada (parliament) these elected faction leaders become more important.  I hope they can work it out.  I don’t see much role for the US to help.  Maybe they can come up with the $15 billion that Russia seems to have withdrawn.

It does not appear to me that the United States could have swayed things much by smuggling in armaments, and if they did they would escalate the violence and put themselves in very bad odor. The same is true of Russia, which with its long border with Ukraine could do so more easily. I don’t think that we want to get into a contest with Russia’s in attempting to arm one of their neighbors. You may remember that such a strategy didn’t turn out very well in Georgia a couple years back. I don’t think that the United States can contribute very much in the way of intelligence gathering either. And there’s nothing much that electronic intelligence can pick up that Ukrainians cannot gather on their own. Something that the United States doesn’t know, and nobody else knows either, is how the situation will play out, knowing the intentions are of each of the players. It is a truly murky situation. It’s one that would call for good human intelligence and diplomacy. The United States is not proven itself to be terribly adept at either of these.

One of the observations to take from the situation is how poorly the Russians have done. For instance, an activist kidnapped a couple of weeks back and held for 10 days or so before being released. He was severely questioned while in captivity. However, the questions revealed that his captors didn’t know much at all about the situation. Finally they way they let him go after he gave some nonsensical answers. There was another instance in which a somebody turned up claiming to have been a Western Ukrainian activist who incited all sorts of violence. He was widely interviewed on TV talking about the atrocities that the activists were perpetrating. But he spoke with a very identifiable Russian accent. So finally the interviewer, a few minutes into the interview asked “where are you from” and he said Rivne, a Western province. So interviewer asked, “okay and what’s the capital of Rivne?”  There is a city named Rivne and he said Rivne. But as any Ukrainian would know, the capital of a Rivne Oblast is Lutsks. It’s hard to believe that the Russian their level of spy tradecraft had sunk so far from Soviet standards to commit an error so obvious.

The bottom line. Although the United States and Russia, and presumably the Europeans would apparently like to be involved, they simply don’t have tools that are useful. Money is not going to be tremendously effective, bringing weapons into the system would not be, and they don’t have much to give them the way of diplomacy and intelligence. I think that they are both consigned to letting it play out among the Ukrainians. That’s me is the best solution, the only thing that will result in the in anything permanent or meaningful.

I’ve been an advocate of a theory of government, or rather technologies of government. The monarchy system ran its course course in the 18th century.  We witnessed the end of the warlord system in Vietnam: the communist system was simply more effective way of organizing and motivating people than what we supported in South Vietnam. Of course we attempted the put a patina of democracy over the warlord system, but it didn’t fool anybody.  We lost.

What we see in Ukraine is a strong man, thuggish system. It is a legacy of the Soviets, which is itself descended from the Mongols, a strongman rule, always from the top down. This government is not effective because it cannot delegate that authority effectively. In the warlord system you don’t really trust your subordinates because if you give them too much power they will displace you. You have a tendency to appoint people around you on the basis of loyalty rather than ability.

This president is not a very smart man. He has surrounded himself with people who do not cast him in a bad light. In other words, some fairly dull tools. They are simply not effective at getting things done. Every action they undertake appears to be rather ham-fisted. Their thefts are blatant, crude and very destructive for what they realize out of it.   The measures that government took to attempt control those insurrection were also crude, inclined to irritate people and inconvenience them, but not to the deter them.

A president such as Yanukovych could formerly survive by keeping people divided, ignorant and propagandized. However, that simply does not work in Internet age.  Kiev is full of young professionals who are well-educated and well connected and reasonably well-informed. They simply look at him as an embarrassment. Yanukovych supposedly does not even have a computer in his office. He doesn’t know about the times. It is not know about the people he is governing. This disconnect weakens him a great deal. People simply don’t have respect for him and if they don’t respect him, they don’t fear him.

What will be the successor government? Western democracy is not that attractive of a model. People here envy the affluence of the West, but there’s not much in the political system that they really would adopt. They observe the paralysis of the financial systems, the banking system, and the wide unemployment. They don’t want that. They look at the political correctness, and the enforced diversity, and they don’t like that either.

People in Ukraine are socially very conservative. And even among the young the educated young people that I know, there aren’t any people who advocate homosexuality. They advocate tolerance for homosexuality, but they still look at it as a perversion. One that they will put up with – but a perversion nonetheless. So they look at the West as being relatively sick, wealthy as it may be. So I don’t think that there’s a widespread aspiration to emulate the Western democracies.  One hopes that Ukraine will select a government that is consistent with the needs of the country.

The governments of the West are no longer suited to the needs of their populations. Our representative democracy evolved in an era of much smaller more homogeneous populations, better educated populations, and one must add, populations that were on the average, smarter. With the influx of immigrants and the lowering of educational standards, the dysgenetic breeding whereby the smartest people don’t have kids and the dumb ones do, a representative democracy doesn’t work. We simply don’t have voters of the caliber to demand high levels of honesty and accountability among their representatives. So the smart guys are taking over, and the small guy is getting squeezed.  If you can’t figure out what kind of mortage you can afford, or that you can’t afford that new iGadget, the banks will eat you alive.  It is happening throughout the West.  People are unhappy, angry, but they don’t know exactly what to do.

I see a change happening here in Ukraine, with needed improvement coming with the departure of the oligarchs. Unfortunately I also see a collapse coming in the West, as the elites have arrogaged most of the financial power for themselves become less and less responsive to the people.  They will eventually take so much that they are they foment a rebellion and are done in by their greed.  The argument that Ukraine’s government was “democratically elected” didn’t save it.  The process was scarcely any worse than the supposed democracy by which the US elects legislators who do not represent the people.  I don’t expect that the patina of democracy will long save the unrepresentative representatives in Western governments.

Every country in the West is running a budget deficit, most of which appear to be beyond any hope of control. They are printing fiat money at an increasingly great rate. There is debate as to whether this will result in inflation or deflation. I side with the people who expect inflation, because increasing the money supply has always ultimately ended in reducing the buying power of each individual unit of currency. Whatever the reason, the money they get spread it gets distributed to the through the banks to the wealthy, and increasingly benefits the wealthy at the expense of the hoi polloi. The people may not be smart enough to explain why, but they know that they are being screwed.  No salary increases, no meaningful interest on their savings, patently manipulated financial markets, and vast increases in the cost of education, food and other necessary expenses.

This is the sea change.  The people of the Former Soviet Union are intelligent, educated, and finally well enough informed to demand a more transparent, representative government.  Conversely, the countries of the West are being dumbed down by policies that encourage immigration and the fertility of the less intelligent.  They are no longer capable of sustaining representative government, and are increasily governed by elites who make only cursory, sporadic and symbolic gestures in acknowledgement of a democracy which in fact disappeared long ago.  We can pray that nationalist parties in Europe may take their countries out of the European Union and the Euro, renounce their debt, dismiss their immigrants and resume their fertility.   These actions seem highly unlikely.  The best bet for Western civilization appears to be with countries such as Ukraine whose despots have protected them by making them unattractive targets for immigrants, debt and gender confusion.  As Eastern Europe establishes democracies, one hopes that they take a hard look at what failed in the West and avoid our mistakes.  They must maintain the ethnic integrity which assures a high level of social capital.  They must avoid policies that permit people to avoid the responsibilities of work and family.  They must continue to raise their children to be proud of who they are, to be like their parents.  However irrational belief may appear to Richard Dawkins or Sam Harris, a solid grounding in Christianity supports all of the foregoing.  They should retain that as well.